The Lions Absolute Fool-Proof Draft Plan
It is indeed, the most wonderful time of the year! It's Draft week and I've decided to gift you (and the Lions) with the ultimate guide to this year's NFL draft. It's a fool-proof plan that will secure our trip to the Super Bowl in the near future.
I've spent the past few days analyzing previous drafts, our current roster, and the past few Super Bowl winners. I wanted to know what has worked and what hasn't. Some of my own pre-conceived notions were proved wrong and I think this guide is a great resource for anyone who loves professional football.
Stay Away From Any QB's After Pick #1
Let's dive into the history of 1st round picks and the QB's that were taken. Spoiler Alert, it's not worth it. Since 2000, only 40% of QB's taken in the first 10 picks have actually panned out for their respective teams. If you have the 1st pick, you're chance of landing a superstar pans out 63% of the time. Whereas if you have picks 2-5, you're chances fall to a measly 21%. I omitted Jared Goff from being a "worth it" pick, despite having a great start to his career and his resurgence in 2022. He's not worth a 1st overall pick, but he is worth his current contract. We'll look more into that later.
If I had to ask you, "Who's the best QB in this class?" What's your answer? Is it Bryce Young, the California kid who threw for over 8,000 yards, 79 TD's, and only 12 INT's in his last two years at Alabama? Or what about Coleridge Bernard Stroud IV (where did C.J. come from?) who also threw for over 8,000 yards, with 85 passing TD's, and 12 INT's while attending that one school in Columbus that shall remain nameless. Or are you one of THOSE guys whose in love with Anthony Richardson's highlight tape, rather than his 3,000 combined yards (pass + rush), 26 combined TD's, and 9 INT's in his final year at Florida?
Truthfully, I can understand why Young and Stroud are so highly coveted, despite the recent S2 Cognition test that is apparently tanking Stroud's draft stock (take those rumors with a grain of salt). However, my gut feeling is that this class has the potential to be 2018 all over again. 4 guys, all with great arguments as to why they deserve to be taken first, yet plenty of reasons as to why they'll fail at the next level.
Young is undersized and played on a loaded team in the SEC, with a head coach and game plan centered around him and that star-studded offense. Stroud played in a weak conference, didn't win anything, and Ohio State QB's never make it in the NFL. Richardson didn't overwhelmed anybody with his stat line, his team struggled mightily, and he's branded by some as the biggest risk in this draft. Finally, Mr. Levis, who threw for half as many yards as Young and Stroud, threw half the amount of TD's as them, and doubled their INT's. His stats suck, BUT his mechanics are solid? I haven't seen a QB play this bad and get this much hype since Josh Allen. Wait a second...
In all seriousness though, the most important point I have in all of this is that we already HAVE a QB. His name is Jared Goff in case you forgot and he is our future (for at least a couple of more years...) In 2022, Goff was 6th in passing yards, 5th in passing TD's, 8th in completions, and 5th in QBR. Out of the 18 QB's who had 400+ pass attempts, he threw the 3rd least INT's (7), and out of the 11 QB's who had 500+ pass attempts, he threw the least INT's out of anyone. Oh, and I did I mention he's not a UFA until 2025?
According to overthecap.com, he has the 13th best Average Salary per year, even with Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow needing new contracts in 2024. This means that he will be the 15th best QB contract going into next season, while having been a borderline Top-5 QB last year. Put some respect on this man's name!
Defense Is Priority #1
I think one thing that is constantly missed when we're talking about how the Lions will do in 2023, is remembering how awful our defense was last year. Statically speaking, according to PFR, The Lions had the 29th worst defense overall last year. Sit back, take a deep breath, and take a stroll down memory lane as I gloss over some highlights for last season...
We gave up 6,670 total yards (1st), 6.2 yards per play (1st), 377 1st Downs (1st), 427 points allowed (3rd), 4,179 pass yards (3rd), 26 passing TD's (8th), 7.0 net yards per pass attempt (2nd), 2,491 rushing yards (4th), 22 rushing TD's (3rd), 5.2 rushing yards per attempt (2nd), and committed 103 defensive penalties (6th). How on earth did we win 9 games last year?
Now let's take a look at what happened this offseason. We signed Mac McCain (CB), Cameron Sutton (CB), Emmanuel Moseley (CB), C.J. Gardner-Johnson (DB), and Jalen Reeves-Maybin (LB). We released Michael Brockers (DT) and we traded away Jeff Okudah (CB). DeShon Elliot (S), Chris Board (LB), Austin Bryant (EDGE), Mike Hughes (CB), Amani Oruwariye (CB), and Josh Woods (LB) all signed elsewhere.
I think my major takeaway is that our DB situation improved dramatically (at least for this year). It sucks losing Okudah, but according to PFF he wasn't an elite corner. One of the drawbacks with our off-season moves were that most of our DB signings are on one-year deals, so investing in a CB in the draft would be a smart decision. Losing DeShon Elliot hurts the most, but getting Tracy Walker III back from missing most of the 2022 season should ease the pain a bit. Brockers was cut to save $10M in cap space and the three other pass-rushers lost can be replaced, especially after the brutal season the defense had.
Shifting our focus to where we need to improve, now that we know how our off-season went, I would say we have three primary positions to fill: DT/DL, CB, and LB (in that order). Aidan Hutchinson is the bright spot on the Defensive Line. Malcom Rodriguez and Alex Anzalone will be solid leaders for the current LB core. Cameron Sutton, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Emmanuel Moseley, and Tracy Walker III will make-up a solid DB core, however 2 of those 4 players (Moseley & Gardner-Johnson) are on 1-year deals.
Before I go any further, I want to give a quick shoutout to Dane Brugler for "The Beast", which helped me when putting together my favorite draft targets. It's quite literally the most thorough draft analysis that I've ever come across. Definitely worth a subscription to The Athletic (not sponsored btw). Back to our regularly scheduled program.
Now you may be asking yourself, who are the best targets in this years draft? Well, I'm glad you asked. Based off our current needs, here's Dan Brugler's top 5 for each position:
- DT: Jalen Carter (Georgia), Bryan Breese (Clemson), Calijah Kancey (Pittsburgh), Mazi Smith (Michigan), Gervon Dexter Sr. (Florida)
- EDGE: Will Anderson Jr. (Alabama), Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech), Lukas Van Ness (Iowa), Nolan Smith (Georgia), Myles Murphy (Clemson)
- LB: Drew Sanders (Arkansas), Trent Simpson (Clemson), Jack Campbell (Iowa), Daiyan Henley (Washington State), Nick Herbig (Wisconsin)
- CB: Christian Gonzalez (Oregon), Devon Witherspoon (Illinois), Joey Porter Jr. (Penn State), Deonte Banks (Maryland), Emmanuel Forbes (Mississippi State)
TE > RB
It may go without saying, but losing Jamaal Williams is the worst thing to happen to this franchise since the refs picked up the flag against the Cowboys in the playoffs. That may be an exaggeration, but I digress. The good news is that we have TWO legit starters in the backfield, despite losing the Lions current single-season rushing TD record holder.
Newly-signed David Montgomery, who spent the last 4 seasons with the Bears, is a reliable 1st & 2nd down back, who's averaged 800+ rushing yards a season. He averaged 4 yards per attempt, which was slightly lower than the league average of 4.5 yards per attempt last season. For most stat categories, he hovers around the Top 30 mark (league-wide). Statistically, he's a major downgrade from the breakout resurgence that Jamaal Williams saw in 2022. However talent-wise, many people across the league see the two as similar style backs. Both strong runners, who compliment the swift nature (sorry) of D'Andre Swift, who's likely to serve as Detroit's #1 RB, if he can stay healthy.
Speaking of Mr. Swift, who played a career-high 14 games in 2022, was one carry shy of 100 carries for the season. He managed to accrue 900+ yards from scrimmage, and 8 total touchdowns. Nearly half of his production came from the passing game, where he managed over 8 yards per reception. Combining this with his 5.5 Rush yards per carry and you've got a guy who's rearing to breakout. This might be the best RB duo in the league right now!
Speaking of players who are ready for the 2023 season, Brock Wright is someone who stepped up after T.J. Hockenson was shipped off to Minnesota (Fun Fact: my Instagram account got hacked that same week). Brock caught 75% of his targets and accrued 9 yards per target. He was seen more as a great blocker, who could make a big catch every so often. Brock was responsible for 13 first downs, hauled in 4 TD's, and over 200 YRD's on 18 receptions. With a better pass catching option available, brock can settle back in to be the great run/pass blocker that he is.
Looking back at the draft, Dan Brugler's top 5 TE's are Michael Mayer (Notre Dame), Dalton Kincaid (Utah), Luke Musgrave (Oregon State), Darnell Washington (Georgia), and Tucker Kraft (South Dakota State). Mayer and Kincaid are both great offensive TE's, with the former being the consensus #1 ranked TE in the class. Kincaid is an interesting prospect as he has a basketball background and seems to be a potential diamond in the rough. Lots of production, yet still needs some polishing. My main drawback on Mayer is that he isn't a great pass or run blocker. The Lions have plenty of weapons on offense, but what they need is a TE who can block. That's why Luke Musgrave is actually my favorite option here. He's got potential to be drafted in the 2nd round, with 1st round talent. He doesn't have the resume like other TE's in this draft, but the talent is there.
Depth, Depth, and DEPTH
One thing that all Super Bowl winning teams have in common, are the depth they have at crucial positions. Everybody remembers Nick Foles winning the Eagles a Super Bowl while Carson Wentz was injured, or in 2001 when Brady replaced Bledsoe half-way through the season and kick-started the Patriots soon-to-be dynasty. Injuries are bound to happen, it's only a matter of time in the NFL. Let's take a look back through the past couple of years and see what teams did/had in order to overcome that adversity.
In 2023, the Kansas City Chiefs had their rookie RB Isiah Pacheco replace Clyde Edwards-Helaire when he suffered a mid-season injury. He would start over CEH for the remainder of the season, despite Edwards-Helaire returning to the team later that season. WR's JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling stepped up to replace Tyreek Hill, who was traded before the season. That same season, the 49ers, a favorite to win the Super Bowl, lost 3 starting QB's leading up to the NFC Championship game. The Eagles would beat them and move on to face the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
In 2022, the Los Angeles Rams acquired Von Miller midway through the season, despite already having a top-5 defense. They also signed Odell Beckham Jr. after Robert Woods, their #2 WR, suffered a season-ending torn ACL. Sony Michel, who ended up being the team's leading rusher, was acquired after Cam Akers missed most of the season with an Achilles tendon injury. He would eventually come back to replace another RB on their team, Darrell Henderson, who was injured in Week 16, with a season-ending injury. In the playoffs, Tyler Higbee suffered a knee injury and was forced to miss the Super Bowl. Despite all of these injuries, they found a way to win with the depth they had acquired prior to the season.
In 2021, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl in large part due to injuries on the opposing team and off-season moves that the Bucs made prior to that season. The Chiefs lost two of their starting offensive linemen right before the Super Bowl, and were forced to start two guys who had little to no chemistry with the rest of the O-Line. The Buccaneers went out before the season started and added Tom Brady, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, Leonard Fournette, LeSean McCoy, Ryan Succop, and drafted Tristan Wirfs 13th overall who was an immediate starter (and now a 2x pro-bowler). Have I convinced you yet?
With all of this in mind, who do we draft? What positions need bolstering? I would say that we need to build up the defensive line, starting with the DT's. Adding a #1 TE will compliment Brock Wright, who had a solid season after the departure of T.J. Hockenson. Depth at the LB position will also be important. After those positional needs have been filled, it would be worth looking at CB's, another potential RB, and a young QB to develop under Goff.
With the Sixth Pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, The Detroit Lions select...
For fun, I decided to to a mock draft on PFF.com. Here's how it turned out:
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